Research paper status of major countries: NISTEP Survey — Japan's "Decline in presence cannot be denied"

The National Institute of Science and Technology Policy (NISTEP) has published its Benchmarking Scientific Research 2025, which analyzes the status of Japan and major countries with a focus on research papers. While Japan's paper count, which had been increasing in recent years, decreased in the latest year (average of 2021-2023), its global ranking remains unchanged at 5th place overall, 13th for Top 10% papers, and 12th for Top 1% papers. Meanwhile, the number and proportion of high-profile papers such as Top 10% papers have declined not only in Japan but in many countries except China.

The benchmarking study investigates the status of papers in Japan and worldwide, publishing the results every two years. Global paper output, which had been increasing for at least 40 years, declined for the first time in this survey. This may reflect the impact of deteriorating US-China relations and the COVID-19 pandemic.

Under these circumstances, only China has significantly increased its paper output. Looking specifically at Top 10% papers, while China has substantially expanded both the number and proportion, all major countries except South Korea have seen decreases.

Examining the citation structure of Top 10% papers from the top 25 countries and regions, the proportion of domestic/regional citations is highest in China, rising from 41% ten years ago to 67%. In contrast, the United States declined from 33% to 23%, Japan from 16% to 9%, and other major developed countries show similar trends.

Therefore, NISTEP analyzed the proportion of domestic citations in Top 10% papers from the United States and China to determine how many Top 10% papers are heavily cited domestically.

For US Top 10% papers, the proportion of domestic citations peaked at 30-40% in 2001-2003, and at 20-30% in both 2011-2013 and 2021-2023. In the US, Top 10% papers with domestic citation rates of 10-40% account for roughly half of all papers, and while the domestic citation rate has slightly declined over the past 20 years, there has been no major change in distribution.

In contrast, the distribution of domestic citation proportions in China's Top 10% papers showed a peak at 30-40% in 2001-2003, similar to the US distribution, but changed to peak at 50-60% in 2011-2013, differing from the US pattern. In 2021-2023, the peak was at its highest at 80-90%, with Top 10% papers that are heavily cited domestically having increased rapidly over the past 20 years. In the 2021-2023 distribution, Top 10% papers with domestic citation rates of 80% or higher account for 40% of China's total Top 10% papers (29,297 papers by fractional counting method).

In Global South countries, the proportion of citations from China and Global South countries is relatively large. In the latest data, Top 10% papers from Iran, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan show citation rates from their own countries/regions plus China plus Global South exceeding 70%.

Can Japan's research capabilities be evaluated more highly if the influence of China and Global South countries are excluded? Using only citations from G7 and OECD countries to examine global rankings of Top 10% papers from 20 years ago, 10 years ago, and now, Japan ranks 4th → 8th → 11th. While the ranking is higher than when aggregating from the entire world, the decline of Japan's presence cannot be denied.

To break through the current situation, it is necessary to significantly increase research and development investment. Minister of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology Toshiko Abe stated: "It is important and necessary to comprehensively promote not only securing basic funding but also expanding investment in science and technology personnel, challenging emerging and interdisciplinary research fields, realizing AI for Science, and strengthening our international presence. We will steadily advance preparations for budget requests toward comprehensive initiatives."