Crowding at large events and the feeling of crowding depends on the time of day — Feels more "crowded" closer to exit time

A research group led by Professor Katsuhiro Nishinari of the Graduate School of Engineering at the University of Tokyo, Professor Tetsuya Aikoh of the Research Faculty of Agriculture at Hokkaido University, and Specially Appointed Assistant Professor Akira Takahashi of the D3 Center at Osaka University, combined behavioral data from beacons and a questionnaire survey to quantitatively assess how participants of large-scale events feel about crowding and to determine how well their perceptions corresponds to actual conditions. This is the first study in the world to examine the relationship between crowding at an event with more than 10,000 visitors per day and participants' sense of time and space, revealing that they tend to be biased towards exit times rather than the actual time it was crowded. This study is expected to be useful for future event organizers to manage congestion and plan and design events. This study is published in Scientific Reports.

At international conferences, exhibitions, events, and other occasions where people gather and interact, it is important to reduce the negative effects of excessive crowding while maintaining a lively atmosphere. To achieve this, a quantitative evaluation of the perception of crowding is necessary; however, the perception of crowding at events where many people gather remained poorly understood.

The research group conducted a questionnaire survey and a travel behavior survey using Bluetooth at a large-scale event over a period of approximately three years. In the questionnaire survey, respondents were asked to choose the time they experienced crowding in an open-ended format, place where they felt crowding from areas shown on a map, and state of crowding at that time among several photos showing different degrees of crowding. The survey of travel behavior was conducted by means of beacons distributed to participants in an experiment to determine when, where, and to what extent crowding occurred.

Comparing both sets of data, the researchers found that while the respondents identified the time and location of crowding to some extent, when asked to select a photo that represented the degree of crowding, the respondents selected photos without respect to the actual size at the time. While each individual comparatively analyzed their experiences and identified the times and places of most crowding, it was clear that their perceptions of the degree of crowding were heavily influenced by other factors. Furthermore, the time respondents reported to have felt crowded tended to be closer to their exit time than to when crowding was actually detected. This result suggests that newer memories are more likely to be perceived with regard to crowding.

Understanding how participants perceive and remember crowding is expected to contribute to the advancement of cognitive science and engineering research examining crowd safety and security. Furthermore, it will help in the management and design of events, leading to better event experiences. In particular, the tendency for new crowds to be easily recognized suggests that event organizers need to appropriately address crowding closer to exit times. Concrete measures based on these findings will be implemented to improve event management. Further research will contribute to devising methods to reduce the negative effects of crowding while maintaining the benefits of people gathering.

Journal Information
Publication: Scientific Reports
Title: Quantifying crowding perception at large events using beacons and surveys
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-83065-4