Science and Technology Indicators 2026 published by NISTEP

Japan, while showing strength in traditional academic fields, is falling behind the world in relatively new and attention-attracting fields. The National Institute of Science and Technology Policy (NISTEP) published Science and Technology Indicators 2026. Classifying top 10% papers (2022-24 average) across 326 citation topics into established and emerging in large-scale areas, and established and emerging in small-scale areas, it was found that Japan ranks 8th in large-scale established and 9th in small-scale established, while holding relatively low positions at 14th in large-scale emerging topics and 13th in small-scale emerging topics. To innovate in new research areas, leeway in time and funding is necessary, but due to "selection and concentration" policies since the incorporation of national universities, research sites have lost leeway. Nations worldwide have been strengthening research, and development investments are another reason for the decline.

The Science and Technology Indicators are compiled annually by NISTEP, classifying factors relating to science and technology activities into five categories: research and development expenditures, research and development personnel, higher education and science and technology personnel, research and development outputs, and science and technology and innovation. The status of Japan and major countries are represented across approximately 160 indicators.

Looking at Japan's status from major indicators, paper count ranks 5th, top 10% paper count ranks 13th, and research and development expenditures and researcher counts rank 3rd, remaining in the same rankings as Science and Technology Indicators 2025. Among major countries, China slightly surpassed the United States in corporate sector research and development expenditures to rank 1st. China also surpassed the United States to rank 1st in total research and development expenditures combining industry, academia, and government.

The balance among ministries and agencies in Japan's science and technology-related budget has changed significantly since fiscal year 2016. Total values of initial budgets and supplementary budgets in fiscal year 2025 were 37.2% for the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT) and 28.6% for the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI), accounting for approximately 70% of government budgets. Comparison between these figures and those of fiscal year 2016 illustrates that MEXT decreased by 18 percentage points and METI increased by 10 percentage points. On the other hand, research and development expenditures of the Ministry of Defense are increasing, positioning it third at 12.3% of the total in the initial budget for fiscal year 2026.

Looking at research and development expenditures, which are amounts actually used for research and development, all sectors including corporate, university, and public institution sectors in Japan have shown an increasing trend entering the 2020s. Research and development expenditures borne by the government rapidly increased from 2.7 trillion yen in 2020 to 3.7 trillion yen in 2024. This is because, in addition to tax incentives, subsidies from the government to companies are increasing. Furthermore, unit prices of research consumables and computer resources with high relevance to GPUs have risen significantly. For instance, calculation modules are 7.1 times higher and calculation systems are 4.7 times higher compared to 15 years ago, with price inflation also exerting influence on research and development.

The number of female researchers in Japan is steadily increasing, with the female proportion among newly hired researchers reaching 25.6% overall. Among them in companies, it became 22.7%, a 1.6-fold increase compared to approximately 10 years ago. Public institutions stand at 32.3%, and universities and other higher education institutions stand at 37.1%. On the other hand, aging of full-time university faculty is progressing, with the proportion of faculty in their 20s and 30s declining across all fields.

In Science and Technology Indicators 2026, using fine-grained field classifications (topics), attention-attracting papers were classified into four research topic types along two axes of novelty and scale. Looking at the composition ratio of the four research topic types in top 10% papers, the proportion of large-scale and emerging topics, where topic scale is relatively large and new, is large in China and South Korea. Among top 25 countries and regions in top 10% paper counts, those with high specialization degrees in large-scale and new topics were Iran, Saudi Arabia, China, Singapore, Pakistan, and others. In addition, while fluctuations by country and region were large, countries and regions with higher specialization degrees in large-scale and new topics tended to show higher growth rates in top 10% paper counts over the past 10 years.

China and Global South nations are working intensively on large-scale and new research topics, and this may also relate to increases in top 10% paper counts. In particular, while there are relatively new fields such as computer vision/graphics, sustainability science, microRNA/long non-coding RNA, and power systems/electric vehicles, they are putting efforts into engineering fields that were Japan's strengths, such as concrete science, wireless technology, and communication engineering.

Japan has maintained 1st place in the world in patent family counts (patent applications to two or more countries) for approximately 20 years, but its share is gradually declining. China in particular is rapidly expanding its share, increasing over the past 20 years by 10 percentage points in patent families citing papers, and by 17.7 percentage points in paper counts cited by patent families.

In cutting-edge fields such as quantum, AI, and biotechnology, proximity between basic research and business is advancing. The government is also putting efforts into them, but paper topics exert influence on industry over 10 to 20 years. Neglecting long-term investment appears in these results as well, and policies must be reviewed urgently.