A strong center aiming for a "disaster prevention nation" - Overview of the Disaster Management Agency

An overview of the organization of the Disaster Management Agency, which is expected to serve as the command center to realize the "Disaster Prevention Nation" proposed by the Shigeru Ishiba administration, has been revealed. A government expert committee responsible for examining the role of the Disaster Management Agency (the Advisory Committee for Disaster Management Agency Establishment Preparation) compiled and published a report on June 4. In response, Prime Minister Ishiba held a Cabinet Meeting for Promoting the Disaster Prevention Nation at the Prime Minister's Office on June 6, announcing an overview of the organization of the agency, which the government aims to establish in fiscal year 2026.

Not "Will it come someday?" but "When will it come?"

According to the organizational overview, the current system managed by the Cabinet Office's disaster prevention organization will be completely renewed. The Disaster Management Agency will comprehensively handle "preventive disaster management" from peacetime, as well as the initial response immediately after a disaster occurs through to recovery and reconstruction. A dedicated minister directly under the Prime Minister will be appointed, with the power to make recommendations to other ministries; ministries receiving recommendations will be obligated to respect them. The aim is for the agency to become an organization capable of coordinating other disaster prevention-related ministries and agencies by recruiting and developing specialized disaster-prevention personnel.

The expert committee report called for "switching awareness from the idea that a disaster 'will someday come' to 'when it will come.'" It would not be strange for an earthquake on an active fault to occur anywhere, at any time. A Nankai Trough megaquake and an earthquake under the Tokyo metropolitan area are predicted to occur within 30 years with high probabilities of approximately 80% and 70%, respectively. The Disaster Management Agency is required to build a strong organization equipped with "skilled personnel" excellent in appropriate policy-making capabilities for disaster prevention and mitigation.

"Reconstruction of strategy and tactics is necessary" clearly stated

The opening of the expert committee report declared: "To think together with the people, prepare together, and protect together. To create a society where we can protect lives from disasters and live with peace of mind, and a future that generates new value through disaster prevention. The Disaster Management Agency is what will realize such a society and future." While the government bears significant responsibility for disaster prevention and mitigation measures, the report emphasizes the importance of cooperation between the central government and local governments, as well as regions, private companies, and research institutions, to reduce damage from major earthquakes and disasters that can occur anywhere in the country.

The committee consists of 20 experts from a wide range of fields related to disaster prevention, including Professor Emeritus Nobuo Fukuwa of Nagoya University, Professor Yu Hiroi of the Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology at the University of Tokyo, and President Masaru Kitsuregawa of the Research Organization of Information and Systems. It systematically covers the role and responsibilities required of the Disaster Management Agency by organizing the challenges revealed by past major earthquakes and disasters.

The report first clearly states that "it is necessary to discover in advance, during peacetime, the phenomena where damage dramatically expands due to structural and institutional vulnerabilities inherent in society, and to fundamentally reconstruct disaster prevention strategies and tactics that dramatically reduce damage through industry-government-academia cooperation." By using the term "reconstruct," it indirectly indicates that current national disaster prevention and mitigation measures and systems cannot respond to megaquakes or earthquakes with epicenters directly under Tokyo, etc.

"One-stop service window" operations and strengthened cooperation with private organizations also requested

Japan is referred to as a "major earthquake country" and "major disaster country." Damage from "extreme weather" attributed to climate change, specifically strong heavy rains and intensified typhoons, is increasing. Disaster prevention in this country has involved many existing ministries and agencies by field, including the Cabinet Office, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, and Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, as well as the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Ministry of Defense, and National Police Agency. The roles of these existing ministries and agencies will basically remain unchanged even after the establishment of the Disaster Management Agency.

Therefore, what the report clearly stated and the government's Cabinet Meeting for the Promotion of Japan as a Disaster-Resilient Nation decided was the command center function of the Disaster Management Agency. This was built on the pillars of "planning and formulating basic disaster prevention policies and national strategies that anticipate all situations and foresee possible damage," "thorough promotion and acceleration of preventive disaster management from peacetime," and "construction of initial response systems immediately after disasters occur and rapid support systems for affected local governments as well as recovery and reconstruction support utilizing past disaster experiences."

All existing disaster prevention-related ministries and agencies are large organizations with substantial budgets and personnel. To properly "move" such existing organizations, it is necessary to build a strong organization. What is essential is the securing and development of "skilled personnel" who have the policy-making, situational judgment, and decision-making capabilities to solve accumulating challenges, and who can give the organization persuasive power. The report also points out the necessity of securing and developing disaster-prevention experts, including personnel recruitment from the private sector, environmental improvement, and the enhancement of their treatment.

In past major earthquakes and natural disasters, there were cases where support was delayed due to insufficient coordination with affected local governments. To improve such situations, the report requests that the Disaster Management Agency operates local countermeasure headquarters as a "one-stop service window" that consolidates contact points for affected local governments and plays a leading role in enhancing regional disaster-prevention capabilities by strengthening cooperation with regional private disaster prevention-related organizations and volunteer groups.

To significantly reduce national crisis-level damage

A government working group that has been examining damage estimates for a Nankai Trough megaquake, which is expected to cause "unavoidable national crisis-level damage," published a report on March 31 stating that "in the worst case, 298,000 people would die, and economic damage would reach up to 292 trillion yen."

Subsequently, the Japan Society of Civil Engineers published a report on June 11 stating that the economic damage over 20 years after a Nankai Trough megaquake would amount to an estimated 1,466 trillion yen. The damage estimate for an earthquake beneath the Tokyo metropolitan area was also put at 1,110 trillion yen. The fiscal damage combining tax revenue declines and reconstruction costs due to a disaster would amount to 506 trillion yen for a Nankai Trough earthquake and 433 trillion yen for a Tokyo metropolitan area earthquake.

Both reports show damage on a tremendous scale. To reduce this, there is no choice but to thoroughly implement preventive disaster management. In the case of a Nankai Trough megaquake, tsunami deaths, which account for about 70% of expected fatalities, could be "reduced to 94,000 tsunami victims if the proportion of people who can evacuate immediately could be increased from the assumed 20% to 70%."

The Japan Society of Civil Engineers' report also states that, for example, measures costing 58 trillion yen or more for a Nankai Trough megaquake could reduce damage by 396 trillion yen, and measures costing 21 trillion yen or more for an earthquake beneath the Tokyo metropolitan area could reduce damage by 410 trillion yen.

While these points are merely estimates, they clearly demonstrate the importance of preventive disaster management. However, even considering the condition of "if people evacuate immediately" for death reduction measures, it is "easier said than done." Many areas have aging populations and finding it difficult to maintain regional communities, and the capabilities of the Disaster Management Agency will be tested when it comes to thorough implementation of preventive disaster management.

Disaster Management Agency establishment is the starting point, we must also thoroughly "prepare"

The government plans to decide organizational details, including the specific personnel scale of the Disaster Management Agency, by the end of the year and submit related legislation to next year's regular Diet session.

Ishiba advocated for the establishment of a "Disaster Prevention Ministry" in the Liberal Democratic Party presidential election in September last year. He declared at the Cabinet Meeting for Promoting the Disaster Prevention Nation on June 6 that "the Disaster Management Agency will become the command center for the entire government toward realizing a 'Disaster Prevention Nation' that prioritizes human life and human rights." His words of "prioritizing human life and human rights" carry weight. We hope he will demonstrate strong leadership.

The government expert committee report emphasizes at the end that "even with the establishment of the Disaster Management Agency, not all challenges can be solved immediately," and that "(new organization) establishment is not a 'destination' where everything is in place, but a 'starting point' toward solving future challenges."

However, it would not be strange for a major earthquake to occur anytime, anywhere. Thorough implementation of preventive disaster management "cannot wait." Possible measures need to be started promptly. Taking the opportunity of the full-scale start of work to establish the Disaster Management Agency, the government, local governments nationwide, regional private organizations, and we ourselves want to thoroughly implement the "preparations" that can be done now.