Nations must unite and move forward to avert the climate crisis: COP30 highlights the difficulty of international cooperation

Damage from extreme weather events such as heat waves, droughts, and torrential rains is becoming more frequent around the world. It is said urgent measures are needed to address global warming and climate change, which are considered to be the cause. Against this backdrop, the 30th Conference of the Parties (COP30) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was held in Belém, Brazil, from November 10 to 22. This conference marked 30 years since the first COP and 10 years since the adoption of the "Paris Agreement," an international framework aimed at limiting the average global temperature rise since the Industrial Revolution to 1.5 degrees Celsius. Countries that have suffered significant damage are becoming increasingly alarmed, and the outcomes of this conference were closely watched.

However, the conference ended without finding a clear path to avert the "climate crisis," failing to reach agreement on "phasing out fossil fuels," which had been a major point of contention. The difficulty of advancing countermeasures through international cooperation was once again displayed.

COP30 did produce some positive outcomes, including a commitment to increase "adaptation funding" to prepare for climate change-related disasters, and the momentum for strengthening countermeasures has not yet been lost. Countries have been fortifying their countermeasures over time. These efforts to overcome climate change must not be halted. The only way forward is to unite and move ahead with a shared sense of urgency about climate change.

Agreement to triple "adaptation" funding by 2035

Debate over the COP30 agreement document remained contentious until the end, and consensus was barely achieved even after extending the schedule by one day. The biggest factor contributing to the difficult negotiations was disagreement over the position of phasing out fossil fuels, which is a fundamental measure for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. According to conference participants, Brazilian President Lula, whose country chaired the conference, was proactive from the start in pushing for a roadmap to phase out fossil fuels, arguing that "we must start thinking about how to live without fossil fuels."

In the final stages of the conference, Brazil, as the host country, proposed for the draft agreement document to include a roadmap to phase out fossil fuels such as coal and oil. About 80 countries, including the European Union (EU) and Pacific island nations, supported the proposal. However, oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia and Russia strongly opposed it, and the chair removed this item from the draft agreement. Japan did not join the countries in support of this proposal.

While the failure to reach agreement on the biggest point of contention disappointed the supporting participants and various countries' environmental groups, there were also achievements. One of these was the agreement document's inclusion of a call to "make efforts to at least triple 'adaptation' funding to prepare for damage caused by climate change by 2035."

Although no specific roadmap was presented, consensus was reached to "promote the acceleration of measures toward achieving the Paris Agreement target of limiting temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels" and to "develop a two-year work plan aimed at realizing financial assistance for developing countries." These actions followed the decision at the previous COP29 to set a target of allocating $300 billion annually from developed countries and $1.3 trillion annually globally for countermeasures by 2035. The document was named "Global Mutirão," after a term meaning "collective work" in the language of Brazil's Indigenous peoples.

The significant impact of the Trump Administration's "defection"

One major impact on this conference was the absence of the United States, the second-largest emitter of greenhouse gases after China. U.S. President Trump signed an executive order on the first day of his inauguration in January last year to once again withdraw the U.S. from the Paris Agreement. Although their departure will not take effect until this January this year, the Trump Administration decided to be "absent" by not sending a government delegation. This openly displayed its stance of "defection" from the Paris Agreement.

Since the establishment of the COP framework, which is premised on international cooperation, the U.S. has alternated between Democrats and Republicans administrations. While there have been differences in enthusiasm for measures such as funding, they had essentially kept pace with other countries' measures based on the agreement until 2017, when the first Trump Administration announced its withdrawal from the Paris Agreement.

However, following the Biden Democratic Administration, the re-elected Trump has taken a firm "anti-climate change/global warming countermeasures" stance. At the UN General Assembly in September, Trump declared that "climate change is the biggest con job ever perpetrated," calling predictions by international organizations such as the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) the work of "stupid people" and "wrong." He referred to renewable energy as a "green scam," surprising representatives from many countries.

According to Japanese officials who attended COP30, the absence of the United States, the world's largest economy and a country that has also provided funding for climate change countermeasures, had a substantial impact. Furthermore, America's "America First" approach cast a shadow over the atmosphere of the conference. It additionally emboldened oil-producing countries who opposed the roadmap for phasing out fossil fuels. China is the world's largest emitter and a country promoting the expansion of renewable energy as a national policy. Its response was being closely watched in the absence of the United States, with China not taking the lead in discussions.

Growing view that the "1.5-degree target" is difficult to achieve

It must be said that the outcomes at COP30 were unsatisfactory. Even before the conference commenced, momentum toward reducing greenhouse gas emissions was not necessarily high. The UN had asked countries to submit their greenhouse gas emission reduction targets for 2035 by September. However, only about 30% of the signatories met this deadline. The number of countries that submitted their targets increased after COP30 began, but it was still only about 60%.

Prior to the conference, UNEP published a report predicting that even if the reduction targets already submitted for 2035 (NDCs) are achieved, temperatures will rise by 2.3 to 2.5 degrees Celsius by the end of this century. Moreover, if reduction efforts are neglected without strengthening countermeasures, temperatures could rise by as much as 2.8 degrees. It is estimated that achieving the 1.5-degree target requires about a 55% reduction by 2035 compared with 2019, but current NDCs are estimated to achieve only about a 15% reduction.

Among climate experts, the prevailing view is that achieving the 1.5-degree target has become difficult. The focus has shifted to the challenge of "overshoot": how to shorten the period during which temperatures temporarily exceed 1.5 degrees and minimize the magnitude of temperature rise over a certain period. However, even a short-term overshoot is said to have a major impact on people's lives. There is no change in the need for continued maximum efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

On November 6, at the leaders' summit of COP30, UN Secretary-General António Guterres appealed: "Science now tells us that a temporary overshoot beyond the 1.5 limit—starting at the latest in the early 2030s—is inevitable... If we act now, at speed and scale, we can make the overshoot as small, as short, and as safe as possible—and bring temperatures back below 1.5℃ before century's end... Choose to make Belém the turning point." However, the results of the conference that followed did not satisfy Guterres.

Climate science expert says "skepticism affects the fate of humanity"

Following the conclusion of COP30, Professor Seita Emori of the Institute for Future Initiatives at the University of Tokyo, who specializes in climate science and is well-versed in global climate change countermeasure trends, gave a lecture at the Japan National Press Club on December 2. In his lecture, Emori expressed alarm about the current situation in which skepticism toward global warming and climate change is rising under the Trump Administration, stating: "Policies that strongly reflect the interests of certain industries are bringing structural changes to American society and are about to affect the fate of humanity."

Emori specializes in climate change simulation within the field of climate science and has worked for many years at the National Institute for Environmental Studies. He is also a lead author of the Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and actively speaks about the importance of global warming and climate change countermeasures.

Emori expressed regret that the "phase-out of fossil fuels" could not be included in the agreement document adopted at COP30 due to opposition from oil-producing countries and others. He suggested that if "unanimous consent" is required for agreement, it is unreasonable to advance the phase-out of fossil fuels at the COP venue where oil-producing countries also participate, and that countries that consume fossil fuels such as oil have no choice but to reduce demand.

Regarding the problems of the Trump Administration in the United States, which had a major impact on the COP, Emori pointed out: "In addition to the re-withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, there are budget cuts and personnel surveillance at climate-related federal agencies such as National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), as well as the weakening and abolition of various environmental regulations." Referring to the content of Trump's speech at the UN General Assembly, he stated that behind the administration's "anti-global warming/climate change policy" lies a "denial ecosystem" in which the oil industry seeking to avoid regulations associated with decarbonization, politicians and think tanks that support them, as well as some media are connected to contribute to its spread.

International cooperation for the sake of "future generations"

According to Emori, data clearly shows that countries more vulnerable to climate change generally have lower per capita greenhouse gas emissions. In other words, "people who bear no responsibility for causing the damage from climate change are being seriously affected" (Emori). During the COP30 session, environmental groups around the world protested these issues and called for strengthening countermeasures. Indigenous groups from Brazil, the host country, attracted the attention of participants by marching to call for strengthening countermeasures and protecting the Amazon rainforest.

According to UN public information, during the session Guterres met with youth delegations from various countries and apologized, saying "past generations have failed to contain the climate crisis." He stressed the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy is essential, that it is necessary to confront powerful lobbying groups who prioritize their own interests over the well-being of the international community and the planet. For this to eventuate, the power of "future generations" of young people is needed. In response, a 16-year-old boy from Brazil reportedly answered: "We don't want to be activists, we just want to be children and adolescents."

In its report published in 2021, the IPCC concluded that "it is unequivocal that human influence has warmed the atmosphere, ocean and land." This conclusion was meticulously supported by detailed data through computer analysis and other methods. Its content refuted the "global warming skepticism" which was already visible at that stage. Emori stated, "the vision of the world cooperating to stop climate change and the recognition of its necessity is shared by most countries," but emphasized that "if the world gives up (on countermeasures), humanity will be in serious trouble."

While acknowledging that climate change countermeasures are at a difficult juncture, Guterres called for continued multilateralism and international cooperation for countermeasures to protect the interests of the entire international community. It is primarily the past generations of developed countries and some emerging economies that have increased greenhouse gas emissions alongside their economic development. "We must not leave the bill to future generations." This phrase, which has been spoken many times, should once again be shared around the world.